Support to the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus on Analysis of the Potential GDP and Output Gap Estimations

Country
Belarus
Position
Key expert 2: Expert in Macroeconomic Forecasting (cat. I)
Expected Start
03 September 2018
Duration
30 working days
Deadline
16 July 2018
Contact
Mert Perk ( mperk@proman.lu )

Detailed description Back

Global objective

To provide lecture and workshop exercises on practical application of econometric models of GDP growth decomposition and output gap calculations among governmental authorities involved in policymaking.

Specific objectives

  1. To examine various methods of output gap estimation and forecasting to justify most balanced socio-economic development scenario;
  2. To elaborate guidelines for selection of preferred method based on assigned tasks knowing strengths and weaknesses of different univariate and multivariate methods;
  3. To practice applications of non-structural univariate methods for the estimation of potential output to Belarusian data (The Hodrick and Prescott filter, the Baxter and King filter, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the unobserved components decomposition, etc.);
  4. To practice application of multivariate methods for the estimation of potential output and cycle extraction techniques to Belarusian data (the multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter, the multivariate Kalman filter, etc.), namely expansion of univariate methods with Okun's law, Phillips curve, NAIRU, and business-cycle indicators;
  5. To practice application of structural approaches (methods based on an aggregate production function);
  6. To prepare guidelines for Belarusian policymakers for application of output gap estimation and forecasting, economic growth decomposition.

Qualifications

Education and Skills

  • At least Master's Degree, preferably in econometrics, trade policy, other relevant field or in its absence, at least 5 additional years of professional experience on top of the 12 required under general professional experience above.

Experience

  • At least 12 years of general professional experience in sector 9 (Trade) under Lot 2;
  • At least 5 years of specific professional experience in area of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic forecasting and modelling, econometrics;
  • Experience in applied econometrics in forecasting GDP, trade, inflation, etc.;
  • Experience in the use of univariative and multivarative methods;
  • Experience in working in EViews 9.0/10.0;
  • Experience in working with other econometric software would be an asset.

Language skills

  • Fluency in both written and spoken English;
  • Knowledge of Russian would be an asset.

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