Detailed description Back
To provide lecture and workshop exercises on practical application of econometric models of GDP growth decomposition and output gap calculations among governmental authorities involved in policymaking.
- To examine various methods of output gap estimation and forecasting to justify most balanced socio-economic development scenario;
- To elaborate guidelines for selection of preferred method based on assigned tasks knowing strengths and weaknesses of different univariate and multivariate methods;
- To practice applications of non-structural univariate methods for the estimation of potential output to Belarusian data (The Hodrick and Prescott filter, the Baxter and King filter, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the unobserved components decomposition, etc.);
- To practice application of multivariate methods for the estimation of potential output and cycle extraction techniques to Belarusian data (the multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter, the multivariate Kalman filter, etc.), namely expansion of univariate methods with Okun's law, Phillips curve, NAIRU, and business-cycle indicators;
- To practice application of structural approaches (methods based on an aggregate production function);
- To prepare guidelines for Belarusian policymakers for application of output gap estimation and forecasting, economic growth decomposition.
Education and Skills
- At least Master's Degree, preferably in economics or other relevant field or, in its absence, at least 5 additional years of professional experience on top of the 12 required under general professional experience above.
- At least 12 years of general professional experience in the sector 9 (Trade) under Lot 2;
- At least 5 years of specific professional experience in area of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic analysis and modelling, econometrics;
- Experience in the research or publications on the concepts of potential GDP, output gap and business cycle fluctuations;
- Experience in the use of univariative and multivarative methods;
- Experience in working in EViews 9.0/10.0;
- Experience in working with other econometric software would be an asset.
- Fluency in both written and spoken English;
- Knowledge of Russian would be an asset.